Let us use the seminal racing classic Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, as our guide to Monster Energy AMA Supercross in 2019. Here are the quotes, and here are the riders they apply to. 

Jason Anderson was the 2018 Monster Energy AMA Supercross Champion, but doesn’t garner the spotlight or credit a champion usually receives. This sport is in transition, with the superstar establishment of Ryan Villopoto, James Stewart, and Ryan Dungey all leaving the race track within a short span. Riders like Anderson have to fill the void, but even amongst contemporaries, Anderson doesn’t yet ring up to superstar status like Roczen or Tomac.

Anderson does not care about this. He knows the huge championship check cashes regardless of whose name is on it, or how big that name is. However, if Anderson did care about credit, getting more is as simple as winning more races. Anderson has won seven 450SX main events in his career, which is fewer than Tomac has won in either of the last two seasons. The more you win the more you remind people of your powers. Last year Anderson came out firing, won three of the first six, and found himself with a massive points lead. Maybe he slowed down to protect his gap, or maybe Tomac was just faster. This year presents another chance to confirm his ascension—hey, it took Villopoto several titles and a lot of wins to truly be considered at Stewart or Reed status. These things take time—but they also take wins.

We will spare you Ricky Bobby’s reaction to this quote, from his PR gal/about to be girlfriend, Susan.

Ken Roczen has been through hell and back twice now in an 18-month span, and a lesser man would be struggling to use a fork and knife properly, let alone race a motorcycle. Yet there is Ken, not simply trying to comeback, but actually doing it, a genuine threat to win races and maybe this title. Simply put, Ken’s arms and hands might be weakened, but his mind is not, and unlike so many racers who struggle for confidence, the German never doubts his greatness. Kenny has been anointed as a star since his earliest days, and he and this industry know it. His body could be broken, but his belief is not, and that’s why he’s still a huge threat starting this weekend. 

Much is made over the potential drama of several fast riders all training together with Aldon Baker, and yet, nearly 10 seasons into this concept, we can think of just one on-track dustup between his clients: Anderson cutting under Marvin Musquin and taking him down last year. What happened after that? Marvin briefly attempted, and failed, at revenge the next weekend, and everyone moved on. Both still train with Baker. They might not ride together every day, but they’re both still “on the program.” Heck, Marvin got much more heat for his own aggression with Tomac a few months later. Thus, there remains no proof that the Baker concept can’t work.

However, we’ll keep waiting for the day when drama bubbles over and someone yells “it’s either him or me.” Maybe adding the combustible Cooper Webb to the mix will do that. Maybe having a fourth 450 rider in Zach Osborne will do it. It seems like a collision course that’s bound to happen, and yet, since 2011, not much has ever happened. It has all certainly worked than Ricky Bobby and Cal Naughton Jr.’s relationship. Shake ‘n Bake? 

Any racer who endures a huge injury has to wrestle some internal demons before getting back on the track. Cole Seely only made the mistake of being cool—instead of putting on a front, he went in front of the public and admitted his fears. Due to a DMXS Radio interview last year where he admitted he might not want to race again, there’s an assumption that Cole could still be scared to hang it out on the race track. Reality is that Cole has long since moved on from that, and should be fine physically, and, once some opening-round jitters have subsided, mentally. We’ve seen this scenario plenty of times—scary injury, rider says (but usually not to the media) that he might not come back, then he returns and goes just as fast as he used to. Heck, the rider who used to hold Cole’s spot at Team Honda, Trey Canard, literally made a career out of doing this. So the key for Cole is stay calm and preventing that cat from eating him with a smile on its face. He’ll probably be just fine. 

Marvin Musquin has ridden technical excellence to the very ceiling of the sport. He’s finished second in three-straight 450 championships. Technical excellence, though, is only getting him so far. There is one section of a supercross track that sometimes can’t be attacked with precision, but instead aggression. It is the whoops. And that’s where Marvin’s new coach, the outspoken, eight-time premiere class main event winner David Vuillemin, comes in to play. DV cares not what other coaches coach, or what other people say. It’s DV’s way or the highway, and he won’t deal with excuses. Vuillemin, who stands over six-feet tall, could always crush some whoops in his day. Perhaps he can transfer those powers to the more slightly-built Musquin. Further, combining his knowledge with his brash persona could be exactly what the always-humble Marvin needs.

Look, there’s really not that much strategy to dirt bike racing, but no one should roll into this season with a strategy like this: blow Eli Tomac’s doors off. If Eli’s on his game, that ain’t gonna happen. Over the last two years, he has easily been the fastest rider in supercross, and he has won half of the races as proof.

All these guys can do, then, is let Eli be Eli. He might be super fast, and in that case there’s not much you can do with him. He could also crash, or, have those odd nights where he suddenly turns average. Even right now, there are rumors swirling that Eli hurt his back during this off-season and had to take some time off. Eli generally works in the shadows, so no one is going to confirm this rumor. He could win Anaheim 1 by 20 seconds. He could struggle. You just never know.

Eli Tomac does not want to be inconsistent. No one has felt the sting of certain victories turning into painful lessons more than him. He knows all of this. Can he do something about it? Can he be excellent in all 17 races? That might be the only thing that matters.